This is a fairly small county, but we couldn't resist the toll of this bellwether. Here are the top 30 sorted by the highest to lowest Democrat percentage vote in 2008, thats the DPV 08 column: Find out at politico.com/2020-election/results. 2016 winners: Bernie Sanders (Democratic caucus); Ted Cruz (GOP state convention)2012: Obama 51%, Romney 46%, Latestvoter registration totals:Unaffiliated: 128,938Republicans: 111,374Democrats: 109,140Libertarian: 3,388. What does this mean for the nation's political-economic divide? Their finger was so tightly on the pulse of America that they not only picked the winner each time, but managed to accurately flip parties four times in that period. None of them impacts the legitimacy of the presidential election. The following county is the only county to have voted for the winner of the presidential election in every election starting in 1980: The following 44 counties have deviated from the winner of the presidential election in one election since 1980 (no counties deviated from the winner in 1980, 1984, or 1996):[3][4]. For a county to be considered a bellwether it would have to vote for the winning party at each of the following elections: That is 4 switches in 8 election cycles! Until this year. First, itliststotal number of votes they received Obama at 69,000,000,Trump at 74,000,000 and Biden at 81,000,000. You should now have a real tangible sense of how difficult it is to get a streak of 10. In Valencia County, Mr Trump beat Mr Biden by six points more than he defeated Democratic Party candidate Hillary Clinton in 2016. And speak out if youve been a witness to election tampering. It's happened before. Some of the same messages that are going to work in Northeastern Ohio are maybe not going to work as well down here, said county GOP Chairman Alex Triantafilou. Affluent, well-educated Wake County, home to Raleigh and part of the Research Triangle, was once Republican territory. Warren and Henry Counties appear to be the least swingy of those counties from 2008 to 2012. Other counties to watch: Nowhere is more important than Polk (Des Moines). Published Nov. 8, 2016 at 5:30 a.m. Re-doing the analysis we obtain 35 modern bellwether counties after the 2016 election. 11. The meme compares information about former President Barack Obama in 2008 and President Donald Trump and Biden in 2020. Iowa (6 electoral votes) - Lean Republican. The statistics also are not indicative of electoral fraud. November 8, 2016 9:29 AM ET. We highlighted the counties that voted the highest for the Democrat party in 2008 as it is a clear indicator of their propensity to vote for the Democrat party. In politics, the term often applies in a metaphorical sense to characterize a geographic region where political tendencies match in microcosm those of a wider area, such that the result of an election in the former region might predict the eventual result in the latter. Michigan (16 electoral votes) - Lean Democratic. As long as a candidate wins enough electoral votes from other states, there is noreason it's impossible to win an election while losing Florida, Ohio, or Iowa. This well-educated, high-income and increasingly diverse D.C. exurb (Asians and Latinos togther make up a third of this county) went for Obama twice and roughly reflected the statewide margin. [How Much Did COVID-19 Affect The 2020 Election?]. Winnebago County: A large bellwether county in east-central Wisconsin, Mr. Trump won it in 2016, but in 2018 Democrats running for governor and the Senate performed much better. That Trump did so well in the remaining 19 bellwether counties in 2020 should come as no surprise, then. Have information that relates to fraud in this election? If you find this article meaningful and convincing, please share it far and wide. What results did you discover? Whether or not these less diverse, industry-dependent communities can regain their bellwether status in four years' time remains to be seen. Yes, another Hillsborough! That includes 10 elections, including Obama in 2008 and Trump in 2016. (See the DPV 08 column in the image below.) Scott Walker all three times his name appeared on the ballot. That means, watch Bucks and Northampton counties. (The highest value being 60.6%), When sorted from the highest to lowest Democrat percentage vote (at the 2008 election), we can see that there are 4 counties that have a percentage Democrat vote greater than 60% at the 2008 election. All rights reserved. The following 111 counties have deviated from the winner of the presidential election in two elections since 1980: Allamakee County, Iowa, in 1992 and 2020 [3] Alamosa County, Colorado, in 2016 and 2020 [3] Baldwin County, Georgia, in 1980 and 2016 [3] Benzie County, Michigan, in 2012 and 2020 [3] Blue Earth County, Minnesota, in 1988 and 2004 [3] Demographically, the bellwether counties tended to be whiter, older, less . Instead, you can Find the latest updates on our Telegram channel which has more recent updates. These former bellwether counties are much whiter and less college-educated than the country as a whole. From his tweet: From 1984 through 2016, spanning presidential elections, seventeen US counties in several states ad voted for the winning presidential candidate in an astounding 148 of 153 times including 100% five times for five different presidents: Advertisement - story continues below 1984 Reagan 1996 Clinton 2000 Bush 2012 Obama 2016 Trump We wanted to provide an easy-to-use guide of which counties to keep tabs on that could tell you how states might vote that are crucial to the election. Other swing counties to watch: Monroe and Calhoun. In 1960, President John F. Kennedy lostall three states and won the White House, beating out future President Richard Nixon, according toSnopes. Seven counties, including Vigo, have got it right in the past dozen elections. Trump won 18 of the 19. Once you have found all the results and looked at the trends, remember, these counties are the best counties at predicting an election outcome! Statewide results: 2012: Romney 53%-46% - 2008: McCain 52%-47%. Unfortunately, Github (now a Microsoft company) terminated this website's account on 13 Jan 2021 for "spreading misinformation", a violation of their terms, although no specific examples were given. Tampa's Hillsborough County is a top bellwether -- since 1960, no candidate has won Florida . Watauga has gone for the winner statewide in each of the last three presidential elections and three Senate races since 2008. Other counties to watch: Wake, in the heart of the Research Triangle, used to be considered a swing county. Outstanding. The trick, for Trump, is to hold down her winning percentage here in a county that has nearly a quarter of a million registered Republicans. I would love to see Clinton or Kaine hold a truckstop rally and appeal to those guys., Latest voter registration totals: 146,952No party registration. Or want to contribute to our open-source collection of articles and statistics? Second, the meme includes the number of counties each candidate won Obama at 873, Trump at 2,497 and Biden at 477. Asingle county could have as few as 88 residents,like Kalawao County, Hawaii. Watch the Philadelphia suburbs, and that means white women. For instance, Washington County, Maine the median bellwether county in terms of its share thats non-Hispanic white is 89 percent non-Hispanic white, which is much higher than the overall U.S. population that identifies as such (60 percent). Much of the rest of the state is rural and ruby red Republican. Suburban Richmonds Henrico County was once a reliable GOP stronghold it went twice for George W. Bush and backed Bob McDonnell in his 2009 gubernatorial win. "That didn't happen after 2016," she adds. The best bellwether counties will consistently vote more than 50% for the winning party. It provided the second highest vote totals of any county and a significant share for Democrats. It almost became religious.". In Valencia County, New Mexico, which had correctly predicted the winner of every presidential election since 1952, Mr Trump won by 10 points; in Indiana's Vigo County, which backed every president bar two since 1888, he prevailed by 15 points. But it's also not unprecedented. Eastern Iowa is often seen as Democratic turf -- the last 4 Democratic presidential nominees have won Scott County. PHOTO ILLUSTRATION BY EMILY SCHERER / GETTY IMAGES. It went for Romney in 2012 (when he won it), but Obama in 2008 (when the Democrat did). Lets rank these counties from highest to lowest Democrat voting percentages in the 2008 election. Nineteen of these counties continued their streak in 2016 by voting for Trump, but the remaining 16 counties ended their bellwether streak by voting for Hillary Clinton. (Biden, for example, won over 70%of the vote in Los Angeles County. She also has to run up the score in Franklin (Columbus, home to Ohio State University). So, for our purposes, a swing county would have voted as follows: There are 80 such counties. Furthermore, consider the fact that bellwethers dont just have a random 50% chance at winning we should expect them to have a better than 50% chance of getting it right. As the country's demographics shift and the rural-urban divide becomes more pronounced, the chances appear slim. It is important to realise these counties have no allegiances whatsoever and will happily vote for whichever party makes the most sense to them based on merit. Obama won it narrowly that year, by fewer than 3,000 votes. From 1980 through 2016, there were 19 counties that consistently voted for the eventual president. Compiled by Si Williams, non-US resident, and other contributors. 2016 primary winners: Hillary Clinton, Donald Trump, Latest voter registration totals: Democrats: 230,401Republicans: 211,817No Party Affiliation: 102,635Others: 16,526. (You can make up your own mind on what the trends mean.). So, where are the bellwether counties? If Trump can't win back or cut into margins in places like Prince William, Fairfax and Loudon, he likely can't win the state. There are 25 counties with a Democrat percentage vote over 60%. Based on our research, the claim that these five statistics about Obama, Trump and Biden appear to discredit election results is MISSING CONTEXT. "Democrats have really not done anything for the farmers They've totally ignored the rural community. The second-most populous county in the state, northern Nevadas Washoe County is home to Reno. What are your thoughts on this article? Please keep this in mind as you continue to read through our bellwether analysis. In other words, only 54 percent of bellwether counties from 1980 to 2012 kept their status in 2016. Profiled by BBC News weeks before the 2020 election, locals said voters' political identities weren't always defined in strict party terms and that people would regularly pivot between parties from one election cycle to the next. It's whiter and less Hispanic than the rest of the state, but it has a higher share of residents with college degrees. In 2020, a single county in the setkept its perfect recordby tallying a win for Biden. BBC Reality Check breaks down the bill for the world's most expensive election, Arriving at a voting station to observe as a poll challenger on 4 November last, she sat down next to two people she didn't know. Trump won Luzerne County by nearly 20 points in 2016, outperforming Romney . who in 2016 won Caswell and other rural counties in North Carolina by tapping those feelings of abandonment. Here is a look at the bellwether counties for the 2020 presidential race. If it's close here, Georgia could be in play. The most impressive of those was Valencia County, New Mexico, which voted for the victor in every presidential election from 1952 to 2016. John King has identified as key in the 2016 election. 108,000 people. Now imagine getting 21 out of 22! Four years later, Caswell is still looking for a second act for its . Like Texas, Utah looks like it's receded from the battleground, so we don't include it in our 13 battlegrounds. Virginia (13 electoral votes) - Lean Democratic. Neither Clinton nor Trump won here during the caucuses in this Mississippi River county. Of their nineteen bellwethers, only Essex County, Vermont can be considered as a political competitive county. 2016 primary winners: Clinton, Cruz2012: Obama 53%, Romney 46%, Latestvoter registration totals:Democrats: 101,967Republicans: 75,145Unaffiliated:65,344Libertarian: 1,022. The Biden campaign has run ads in the Toledo broadcast market, which conveniently covers part of Michigan, too. Bucks has three times the voters than its neighboring county to the north. If youve done your research and found the 2020 results for each of these counties, you should find the results extremely puzzling. Clinton will win Democratic Clark County, the states population hub and home to Las Vegas. "Those are things that aren't just political, they become personal, after the election.". In an election that will be decided by a relatively small group of pivotal counties within a relatively small set of swing states, POLITICO has selected 25 critical battleground counties that are poised to be difference makers, places that could have a material impact on the presidential election. It is whiter than the rest of the state but has a slightly higher level of college degrees, although still it's just 28 percent. Bellwether counties are already extremely rare, but some bellwether counties are better than others at highlighting a change in sentiment. North Carolina (15 electoral votes) - Toss-up Bellwether: Watauga In the western mountains on the border with Tennessee, it's home to Boone, which includes Appalachian State. The odds of 21 counties out of 22 missing the mark is extremely remote! Jacksonvilles Duval County has been a reliable Republican performer over the years, though it nearly went for Obama in 2008 in large part due to high African-American turnout. Election-Integrity.info provides over 25 thoroughly-researched, scientifically-approached reports. (The highest value being 66.1%), When sorted from the highest to lowest Democrat percentage vote (at the 2008 election), we can see that there are 25 counties that have a percentage Democrat vote greater than 60% at the 2008 election. Wood County is a decent bellwether of the state: Mr. Trump carried it by eight points in 2016, matching his statewide margin. Also key is Volusia, which represents a large county that has been close to the overall vote. As with Valencia County, in the past bipartisanship wasn't unusual in Indiana's Vigo County. Oct. 28, 2021, 11:05 AM PDT. Marcela Stewart speaks to a voter at an event to encourage minority voter turnout n Cutler Bay, Fla., on Sunday. Weeks after Election Day, there have still been no discoveriesof widespread voter fraud. So those suburban whites are key here and might tell a story not just about who wins the state, but who wins nationally. In 2018, Senator Sherrod Brown, a Democrat, carried it by 11 points . One of the highest income counties in the nation and a longtime GOP Midwestern stronghold, in recent years the suburban behemoth has begun trending toward Democrats -- not even Mitt Romney, who grew up here, could win it. Our fact check work is supported in part by a grant from Facebook. The percentage of people with college degrees here is two-thirds higher than the rest of the state.